Market Intelligence
The Durham multifamily rental market is experiencing a period of adjustment characterized by moderating rents, elevated construction activity, and shifting supply-demand dynamics. The Novus is poised to enter this market as a premier downtown residential option in the vibrant Five Points District.
Vacancy Rate
~7%
Decreasing year-over-year, reflecting strong market demand
Absorption Rate
25 units/month
Average leasing velocity in Downtown Durham
Key Demographics
$80k-$120k
Median renter income, primarily tech professionals and university affiliates
Pipeline Projects
450 units
New units expected within 18 months, potentially impacting market dynamics
Market Overview
Metro Occupancy
94.0%
-1.5% Year-over-Year
Avg. 1BR Rent
$1,290
-12.8% Year-over-Year
Recent Absorption
5,416 Units
Q4 2024 Metro Area
Key Market Insights
The Durham multifamily market is experiencing a period of adjustment with moderating rents creating a "renter's market" with increased price sensitivity. Despite this, occupancy remains relatively healthy with strong absorption numbers.
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Vacancy rates approximately 6% metro-wide, expected to stabilize in late 2025
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Average asking rent in Raleigh-Durham: $1,520 (-3.1% year-over-year)
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Downtown Durham shows stronger absorption due to employment growth and urban lifestyle preferences
Rent Growth Trends
Rent Growth Trends
Access detailed quarterly rent growth data for Durham and comparative markets
Demographic Analysis
Primary Demographic
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Urban professionals (25-40)
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Income range: $85,000-$150,000
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Tech, healthcare, and education sectors
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Value lifestyle, convenience, and social opportunities
Secondary Demographic
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Empty nesters/downsizers (55+)
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Income range: $120,000+
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Seeking lock-and-leave luxury living
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Prioritize security, concierge, and quality finishes
Income Distribution
Income Distribution Analysis
Access comprehensive income distribution data for Durham target renter segments
Supply Analysis
Pipeline Overview
The Raleigh-Durham market has seen record deliveries with 12,002 units completed in 2024 and an additional 20,272 units under construction. The Novus represents one of the few true high-rise luxury developments in downtown Durham.
| Project | Units | Delivery | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Van Alen | 418 | Existing | 0.7 miles |
| One City Center | 139 | Existing | 0.3 miles |
| 511 Faye | 196 | Q3 2024 | 0.5 miles |
Demand Drivers
Employment Growth
Durham shows solid employment growth with total nonfarm employment at 356,100 (March 2025) and year-over-year growth of +1.8%, adding 6,400 jobs.
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Education and health services leading growth (+5.9% YoY)
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Professional and business services growing steadily (+2.1% YoY)
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Duke University and healthcare system providing stable employment base
Lifestyle Amenities
Downtown Durham offers a vibrant urban lifestyle with walkability to dining, entertainment, and cultural amenities that appeal to target demographics.
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Vibrant downtown dining scene and growing retail presence
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Proximity to performing arts venues, museums, and galleries
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Regular community events and festivals in the Five Points District
Downtown Durham Market Highlights
Current market analysis reveals strong fundamentals in the Downtown Durham rental market, with stabilized occupancy and consistent rent growth driven by the area's robust technology, healthcare, and education sectors.
Occupancy Rate
Current downtown average
Annual Rent Growth
Year-over-year increase
Quarterly Absorption
Units per quarter
Renter Profile
- Age:25-44 years
- Income:~$95,000/year
- Industries:Technology, Healthcare, Education
Market Opportunity Summary
The Downtown Durham rental market exhibits resilient fundamentals with high occupancy (92.5%) and strong rent growth (7.2% YoY), despite new inventory. The target demographic aligns perfectly with The Novus's premium high-rise positioning and amenity strategy, catering to professionals in the technology, healthcare, and education sectors with a median income of approximately $95,000 annually.